/**
* Poisson distribution - probability mass function
* A discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events
* occurring in a fixed interval of time and/or space if these events occur with a known average
* rate and independently of the time since the last event.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution
*
* λᵏℯ^⁻λ
* P(k events in an interval) = ------
* k!
*
* @param int $k events in the interval
* @param float $λ average number of successful events per interval
*
* @return float The Poisson probability of observing k successful events in an interval
*/
public static function PMF(int $k, float $λ) : float
{
Support::checkLimits(self::LIMITS, ['k' => $k, 'λ' => $λ]);
$λᵏℯ＾−λ = pow($λ, $k) * exp(-$λ);
$k！ = Combinatorics::factorial($k);
return $λᵏℯ＾−λ / $k！;
}
/**
* Multinomial distribution (multivariate) - probability mass function
*
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multinomial_distribution
*
* n!
* pmf = ------- p₁ˣ¹⋯pkˣᵏ
* x₁!⋯xk!
*
* n = number of trials (sum of the frequencies) = x₁ + x₂ + ⋯ xk
*
* @param array $frequencies
* @param array $probabilities
*
* @return float
*/
public static function PMF(array $frequencies, array $probabilities) : float
{
// Must have a probability for each frequency
if (count($frequencies) !== count($probabilities)) {
throw new Exception\BadDataException('Number of frequencies does not match number of probabilities.');
}
// Probabilities must add up to 1
if (round(array_sum($probabilities), 1) != 1) {
throw new Exception\BadDataException('Probabilities do not add up to 1.');
}
$n = array_sum($frequencies);
$n！ = Combinatorics::factorial($n);
$x₁！⋯xk！ = array_product(array_map('MathPHP\\Probability\\Combinatorics::factorial', $frequencies));
$p₁ˣ¹⋯pkˣᵏ = array_product(array_map(function ($x, $p) {
return $p ** $x;
}, $frequencies, $probabilities));
return $n！ / $x₁！⋯xk！ * $p₁ˣ¹⋯pkˣᵏ;
}
/**
* Gamma function - Stirling approximation
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma_function
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling%27s_approximation
* https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Gamma(n)&lk=3
*
* For postive integers:
* Γ(n) = (n - 1)!
*
* For positive real numbers -- approximation:
* ___
* __ / 1 / 1 \ n
* Γ(n)≈ √2π ℯ⁻ⁿ / - | n + ----------- |
* √ n \ 12n - 1/10n /
*
* @param number $n
*
* @return number
*/
public static function gammaStirling($n)
{
// Basic integer/factorial cases
if ($n == 0) {
return \INF;
}
// Negative integer, or negative int as a float
if ((is_int($n) || is_numeric($n) && abs($n - round($n)) < 1.0E-5) && $n < 0) {
return -\INF;
}
// Positive integer, or postive int as a float
if ((is_int($n) || is_numeric($n) && abs($n - round($n)) < 1.0E-5) && $n > 0) {
return Combinatorics::factorial(round($n) - 1);
}
// Compute parts of equation
$√2π = sqrt(2 * \M_PI);
$ℯ⁻ⁿ = exp(-$n);
$√1／n = sqrt(1 / $n);
$⟮n ＋ 1／⟮12n − 1／10n⟯⟯ⁿ = pow($n + 1 / (12 * $n - 1 / (10 * $n)), $n);
/**
* Put it all together:
* ___
* __ / 1 / 1 \ n
* Γ(n)≈ √2π ℯ⁻ⁿ / - | n + ----------- |
* √ n \ 12n - 1/10n /
*/
return $√2π * $ℯ⁻ⁿ * $√1／n * $⟮n ＋ 1／⟮12n − 1／10n⟯⟯ⁿ;
}
/**
* F used within CDF
* _ _
* 1 ∞ | / 1 ν \ / ν \ |
* Fᵥ,ᵤ(x) = Φ(-μ) + - ∑ | pⱼIy | j + -, - | + qⱼIy | j + 1, - | |
* 2 ʲ⁼⁰ |_ \ 2 2 / \ 2 / _|
*
* where
* Φ = cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution
* Iy(a,b) = regularized incomplete beta function
*
* x²
* y = ------
* x² + ν
*
* 1 / μ² \ / μ² \ʲ
* pⱼ = -- exp| - - | | - |
* j! \ 2 / \ 2 /
*
* μ / μ² \ / μ² \ʲ
* qⱼ = ------------ exp| - - | | - |
* √2Γ(j + 3/2) \ 2 / \ 2 /
*
* @param number $x
* @param int $ν Degrees of freedom
* @param number $μ Noncentrality parameter
*
* @return number
*/
private static function F($x, int $ν, $μ)
{
Support::checkLimits(self::LIMITS, ['x' => $x, 'ν' => $ν, 'μ' => $μ]);
$Φ = StandardNormal::CDF(-$μ);
$y = $x ** 2 / ($x ** 2 + $ν);
$sum = $Φ;
$tol = 1.0E-8;
$j = 0;
do {
$exp = exp(-1 * $μ ** 2 / 2) * ($μ ** 2 / 2) ** $j;
$pⱼ = 1 / Combinatorics::factorial($j) * $exp;
$qⱼ = $μ / sqrt(2) / Special::gamma($j + 3 / 2) * $exp;
$I1 = Special::regularizedIncompleteBeta($y, $j + 1 / 2, $ν / 2);
$I2 = Special::regularizedIncompleteBeta($y, $j + 1, $ν / 2);
$delta = $pⱼ * $I1 + $qⱼ * $I2;
$sum += $delta / 2;
$j += 1;
} while ($delta / $sum > $tol || $j < 10);
return $sum;
}
